McCain's New Radio Spot Aimed at Hispanics in Nevada and New Mexico

I received a bunch of calls today from reporters asking about McCain's outreach to Hispanic voters. The calls were spurred by the McCain campaign's release of a new :60 Spanish-language radio. It's always smart politics to release these things early in the primary season because it gives political writers something to focus on early and then re-report on throughout the season.

The spot's ok, not amazing. But it does get out a centrist message and takes on the Democrats on some of the issues they debated in the primary season. Nevada and New Mexico were chosen for obvious reasons; they'll be important for McCain to win in November if he's going to win the White House.

Telemundo Yanks Cada Dia

I always felt great about placing a client on Telemundo's morning program "Cada Dia." But it never felt nearly as good as placing a client on Univision's AM show "Despierta America."

The biggest reason should be obvious, Despierta's viewership was larger (perhaps as much as 8 to 10 times) on most days. And Despierta inspired far more phone calls to client organization hotlines than Cada Dia.

Yet I was really saddened to hear the Cada Dia bubble has been burst. Cada Dia was lively and a hybrid of sorts bringing the fun and culture of Spanish-language TV along with the news and celebrity of NBC's Today Show format.

But money drives almost everything in television and Cada Dia was not bringing in the big advertising bucks.

The Los Angeles Times had a fairly thorough report on the matter, recently:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fi-telemundo31-2008may31,0,2707858.story

Marketing y Medios reports on a complete realignment in news that goes far beyond just that one major program:
http://www.marketingymedios.com/marketingymedios/noticias/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003810307

Layoffs:
http://www.laobserved.com/archive/2008/06/adios_cada_dia.php

Obama and the Hispanic Vote

Sen. Barack Obama is going to run hard for the Hispanic vote and this is going to be a very exciting general election. I told Bloomberg news that I think Obama will win the Hispanic vote in this era of solid Hispanic support for the Democrats.

But John McCain is going to work just as hard and is probably the Republican best positioned to peel away Hispanic votes from the Democrats.

But tonight's speech by Obama and the massive crowd are reminders that something unique is happening in the political arena and this momentum may very well bring along many people in the Hispanic community who previously supported Senator Clinton.

Here's Sen. Obama's final Spanish-language TV spot of the primary season:

Spanish-language TV News Under the Microscope

La Opinion interviewed me for this piece that ran last week. Topic: Spanish-language TV networks/stations and their news coverage. In my interview, I argued that for the most part Spanish-language TV stations do a great job with their news programming, providing major news coverage of local, regional, national and international events. And that basic idea came across in the piece published May 1st. Incidentally, The Washington Post published a major column on the front of today's Outlook section (the Sunday stand-alone opinion section) by Joe Mathews, a fellow at the New America Foundation. He argues that in Los Angeles and other media markets, the best local news programming is on the Univision and Telemundo stations. The piece makes the point that the Spanish-dominant viewers of these programs are therefore better informed. It was terrific placement and I think much of the argument he makes needs to be heard by the traditional media and policy makers. Sure, Spanish-language TV stations have not always done a perfect job meeting FCC requirements for use of the airwaves, but to ignore the outstanding news reporting that comes from Spanish-language media would do a disservice.

A production of The 2050 Group

HEAN National Bike to Work Day 2008 Preview
The Health and Environment Action Network is a project of the National Alliance for Hispanic Health

McCain Launches Hispanic Voter Outreach Effort, Spanish Website

Senator John McCain's presidential campaign kicked off its general election Hispanic voter outreach today on Cinco de Mayo, the popular Mexican holiday. New site; http://www.johnmccain.com/espanol/

Committed Hispanic outreach is a good sign and means there will be a nice competition with the Democratic nominee (either Obama or Clinton) come this summer, even if the Dems start with a huge advantage.

McCain spoke in Phoenix and his campaign headquarters was decked out for a launch event. Lots of encouraging signs about the importance of this outreach effort within the campaign.

Media eats it up:

Associated Press reports (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iNxTApa2sQRu0Xx99P3jt2bEXw7gD90FL4OO0):

"Republican John McCain on Monday said the focus on illegal immigration during the Republican primary race harmed his party's image among Hispanics."

CNN reports (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/05/mccain/):

"The senator from Arizona used Cinco de Mayo as a launching pad for a new Spanish-language Web site on Monday, and he emphasized his stance on immigration and border security as he tried to court the Hispanic vote."

"McCain also pledged to attend the National Council for La Raza's convention in July, the largest national Hispanic civil rights organization which seeks to improve opportunities for Hispanic-Americans."

Drudge gave it top-billing, wow (http://www.drudgereport.com):
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0541135620080505?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true

Other coverage:

CBS News blog (http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/05/05/politics/fromtheroad/entry4072857.shtml):
"John McCain said today that Hispanic voters are tailor-made for the Republican message..."

Boston Globe blog:
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/05/mccain_courts_h.html

The Hill:
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/mccain-courts-hispanic-voters-2008-05-05.html

U.S. Hispanic Population Continues to Rise Rapidly

I just did an interview with CNN Radio (national) about a U.S. Census Bureau report released tonight.

New data just released by the Census shows a Hispanic population that continues to grow quite rapidly. Hispanics, now the nation's largest minority population at 45.5 million, account for a huge percentage of overall U.S. population growth and this means America's future success will become more and more dependent on how well this population succeeds. The Hispanic population grew at 3.3% which is just slightly below the reported growth rate of 3.4%. Hispanics are now 15.1% of the U.S. population.

There are huge implications for this steady growth. Growth of the Hispanic, Asian and Black populations in the U.S. mean that by the year 2050, perhaps sooner, the U.S. will be a majority minority nation. Today a third of the U.S. population is minority and, if memory serves me well, some states like California and Texas now are already majority-minority.

Interestingly, today the National Alliance for Hispanic Health sought to draw attention to the fact that more than 15 million Hispanics are without health insurance. As the population continues to grow it will become more and more important that the U.S. government find a solution to this massive number of uninsured Hispanics.

I could write for hours on this, but simply put, we're going to need to meet the educational needs of this community to help ensure the U.S. continues to lead the global economy.

Putting my PR and corporate strategy hat on for a minute, continued growth of the Hispanic population (well over a million new Hispanics each year) continues to expand the Hispanic consumer market. And it doesn't take a genius to tell you that when a population continues to grow, the potential to serve the population and profit continues to grow.

Here are some of the first new clips on this Census data release:

The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/01/washington/01census.html

The Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/30/AR2008043003397.html

Star Tribune (from wire services)
http://www.startribune.com/nation/18435529.html

AP story with quotes from NCLR, NALEO and friend Larry Gonzalez:
http://news.ktar.com/?nid=6&sid=823800
Excerpt: "Some Hispanic advocacy groups predict about 10 million Hispanics will show up at the polls, motivated by the usual concerns about the economy, health care and the war and an added catalyst of dismay over attitudes from anti-immigration movements."

Impact felt from Boston to McAllen:
http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/04/hispanics_called_fastest_growi.html
http://www.themonitor.com/news/car_10385___article.html/hike_light.html

More...

Here's the Census bureau fact sheet for Cinco de Mayo (May 5th):
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20080429/pl_usnw/u_s__census_bureau_facts_for_feature__cinco_de_mayo

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES SET RECORD SPENDING ON UNIVISION, TELEMUNDO STATIONS IN PRIMARIES

Initial Findings: Spanish-Language Advertising in the 2008 Presidential Campaign

The two leading Democratic presidential candidates spent millions of dollars on Spanish-language television ads, setting records for individual and combined Democratic expenditures in a presidential primary season. By combining original research, interviews and news reports, the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University estimates that the Democratic presidential candidates spent more money – at least $4 million – on Spanish-language television advertising this cycle, outpacing total spending in 2000 and total primary spending in 2004.

“Three factors have likely contributed to increased spending on Spanish-language appeals: a front-loaded calendar and extended process featuring states with large Hispanic populations, a very competitive Democratic contest, as well as record candidate fundraising and overall spending,” according to Adam J. Segal, founder and director of the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University.

The two remaining Democratic candidates, Senators Hillary Clinton (NY) and Barack Obama (IL) have continued to create and
air Spanish-language ads as the Democratic primary contests have dragged on, with attention now turned to Pennsylvania
(where both campaigns are airing Spanish-language TV spots) and eventually Puerto Rico.

Meanwhile, Republican candidates also aired Spanish-language ads during the primaries and the campaign of likely party
nominee’ Sen. John McCain (AZ) recently released its first general election Spanish-language TV spot.

This information is the result of a research project that involved interviews with TV station managers, visits to TV stations to
review the public political files, as well as Internet and news media research. The findings were released late yesterday at the
“Understanding the Hispanic Vote in 2008” Conference sponsored by the Center for Politics and Governance at the LBJ School at The University of Texas at Austin.

The full report is now available online in PDF form at http://advanced.jhu.edu/government/hvp

The Big Give

I think the ABC/Oprah show "The Big Give" is great and I try to watch every week.

But its biggest failing is that is has done virtually nothing to help build and promote the public movement that its always touting.

Why is there no update/report on what people are doing now that they have been inspired by the show?

There are zero interactive qualities to the weekly show and the program website. Perhaps the second season will incorporate all that, but I think ABC should learn from some recent movements that have take off people the public has been engaged as a partner.

If thought this brief from the Chronicle of Philanthropy was interesting:
http://philanthropy.com/news/prospecting/index.php?id=4270

Diversifying Campaign '08 News Commentary

Like most political strategists and researchers in Washington, DC I have noticed the huge cast of commentators on CNN and other networks this campaign season. Felicia R. Lee of The New York Times had a nice summary and analysis of the diversification of commentators/contributors in the paper this week.

She writes: "All the commentators appear when the networks need them, but are on television more than guest pundits from the outside. While a few are unknown to general audiences, they all come with extensive résumés that mostly include backgrounds in journalism, politics, academe, nonprofit organizations or business."

No doubt there has been a shift, and I have liked it and I bet it has helped secure larger and more diverse audiences, but I am left wondering if the very best minds are making it through to TV this season.

Here's the NYT story: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/02/arts/television/02pund.html?ex=1364961600&en=8ace7ab52b934216&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Are We Nearing Record Spending on Spanish-Language TV Ads in Dem. Primaries?

A couple months ago a reporter with a major national news organization called to ask what I thought about the fact so little had been spent on Spanish-language TV advertising in the months before the presidential primaries, given how much growth we had seen in recent cycles. He or she reminded me of a press release I distributed years ago that screamed record spending. My reaction was that it was way too early to assume a decline and that the story is probably best written after the primaries were held in states with huge Hispanic populations.

Well we're nearing that point. I was excited to see Ira Teinowitz's (of Advertising Age) scoop on this subject. His story, out tonight, reports:

"Hispanic Spending in Texas to Surpass $2 Million"

AND

"Together, the candidates spent nearly $2 million advertising to Spanish-speaking Hispanics in California, and broadcasters are saying spending ahead of the March 4 Texas primary could top that."

AND

"TNSI Campaign Media Analysis Group reports that before Texas, a total of $2.6 million had been spent on Hispanic media. Texas already has seen $400,000 and the broadcasters said total spending is fast moving up."

Wow. It's nice to have access to these data.

I'll have to look back at my records before I can say for certain, but gosh this seems huge. Is it evidence of record spending in the Democratic primaries yet? Hmmm, perhaps.

Regardless, this seems to predict it will reach record levels by the time the Texas primary is held during the first week of March (on the 4th).

A side topic is the campaigns' choices of media consultants. Teinowitz points out the Obama campaign chose a Texas-based consultant, perhaps providing unique state-specific insights.

Visit my Hispanic Voter Project page for data from past cycles:
http://advanced.jhu.edu/academic/government/hvp/

Asian American youth voters

TIME blogger points out interesting ad/viral video on Asian American youth voters. Highly targeted and gets right to the point. I like it and hope it helps.

http://time-blog.com/work_in_progress/2008/02/hot_asian_actors_want_you_to_v.html

HISPANIC PR MONOPOLY?

Is PR Newswire headed for a Hispanic PR monopoly? Is this is a sign of the continued emergence of the Hispanic economy or the Latinization of business?

Today, PR Newswire announced "its acquisition of Hispanic PR Wire, LatinClips, and Hispanic Digital Network."

I have used these services, at times, for the major clients of my agency, The 2050 Group, so I know them well.

For PR Newswire clients who want to reach Hispanics and Hispanic media I think this will be great because when they use the Spanish distribution service (which presumably will combine the strengths of the two services) they'll likely reach more people, and more of the right people, than ever before.

But for Hispanic PR Wire, LatinClips and clients of other services, I would be surprised if we didn't see a nice hefty price increase in the near future. These services have been pretty effective.

PR Newswire is really cleaning up in this narrow industry. Again, I use their services and they're great. But it looks like they're headed for monopoly status in both general public affairs news distribution as well as the Hispanic/Spanish news distribution. Who knows if that's good or bad at this point.

With all this said, nothing beats actually having terrific media contacts at Hispanic/Spanish-language media organizations and a press list of only those journalists who actually want to receive your news.

Web Campaign 2.008

The publiser of "niche social networking communities," Community Connect Inc., has been busy promoting its new clients and alliances. CCI claims 19 million members on its sites. As a PR professional I certainly appreciate the effort the company is making and I am impressed with the reputation some of its properties have achieved.

CCI says Senator Barack Obama approached the firm about its work and subsequently arranged for profiles to be placed on each of its major websites (BlackPlanet.com, MiGente.com, AsianAve.com, GLEE.com, and Faithbase.com). Now here's the impressive result:

"Since the profiles went live on October 5, 2007, the success of the campaign has become evident with Senator Obama's profiles garnering over 200,000 friends. In one week, his profile on BlackPlanet.com garnered more friends than his MySpace and Facebook profiles."

I'll be really interested in seeing what those sites can achieve during a general election effort. I believe Facebook and some of these other social networking sites can provide a massive two-way connection between people and the campaigns. Am I naive enough to believe that Obama will have a connection to hundreds of thousands of people? Of course not, but imagine if his campaign staff connected with these people and moved them to action (donation, volunteer, recruit, etc.). New tools on Facebook are popping up everyday, and lots of them have political and campaign '08 tie-ins. I hope the people and the campaigns find ways to make use of them.

Univision's Meet the Press

Next Month Univision television Al Punto (To the Point) the new Sunday morning "newsmaker discussion program" hosted by our friend Jorge Ramos the prolific author and anchor of the network evening news program "Noticiero Univision." (I know an intelligent, well-spoken and respected expert who'd be terrific for a regular panel of discussants!)

Univision is hosting a bash to launch the show at a prime location in DC. The program itself is likely to attract presidential candidates and leading figures in Washington.

The promotional website has a nice promo video which I presumed was utilized during this year's up-front presentation in New York.

Univision is scheduled to host a historic presidential forum series. The first is with the Democratic candidates on Sunday, September 9th in Miami. The Democratic candidates participating in the forum, in alphabetical order are: Senator Joe Biden, Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Chris Dodd, Senator John Edwards, Senator Mike Gravel, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Senator Barack Obama and Governor Bill Richardson.

The Republican forum will be held Sunday, September 16. John McCain has said he will particiate, though Univision has not announced the participants yet.

Here's my analysis:

These events are historic for Univision and for the nation. They are, more than anything else, an opportunity for the Spanish-language juggernaut to flex it corporate muscles, draw more attention to its value as a political advertising destination, and of course provide the candidates with the best free connection to the nation's Hispanic voters...well at least the segment that watches Spanish-language television. There will also be a flood of mainstream media attention that will likely help the candidates' messages reach the English-dominant Hispanic voters who may be more likely to tune into English media.

Majority Minority America

It is no surprise to those of us who live in the Washington, DC region that minority community growth and migration is changing the demographic make-up of communities and entire counties here.

But it was still big news, just as it was in other places, that 1 in 10 counties are now majority minority or in other words there is no longer a single ethnic majority population in those areas. For example, for the first time, minorities are now a majority in Denver.

The U.S. Census Bureau released its latest report which captured tremendous national media attention.

The bottom line, as I see it, is that the U.S. continues to undergo dramatic demographic changes, is on track to become a majority minority nation by the middle of the century, and the movement toward that projection is being expressed more and more each year.

Click on the newspaper links below to read their coverage of the new census findings:
The Washington Post
The New York Times
Associated Press
Houston Chronicle
Dallas Morning News
Denver Post
USA Today

WILL DEMS HIT THE HISPANIC VOTE JACKPOT?

It looks more and more likely that the next Democratic presidential candidate, no matter who they are, will be able to count on the Hispanic vote jackpot. Two new stories out today are really in line with this thinking.

First, skilled political writer Susan Page at USA Today reported from San Antonio for a cover story on "Hispanics turning back to Democrats for 2008." The headline itself is somewhat misldeading -- My sense is that Democrats have historically enjoyed 56% or more of the Hispanic vote (if you think the exit polls are usually wrong you start at 60% or more). But the premise of the piece is absolutely accurate: Democrats are poised to receive the largest share of the Hispanic vote in years if all goes in their favor in the walk-up to the 2008 presidential election. And with the immigration bill blocked in Congress -- by the GOP is you ask Democratic Party leadership in Congress -- it'll be a very big up hill climb.

Page reports on a new USA Today poll which finds: "A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll indicates that Hispanics, by nearly 3 to 1, say they're Democrats or lean that way. Of those, 59% support the New York senator [Sen. Hillary Clinton] over her presidential rivals — her strongest showing among any major demographic group and a huge potential asset for early contests in Nevada, Florida, California and other states with large Hispanic populations."

Page writes that Hispanic New Mexico Governor Bill "Richardson still has to introduce himself. Six in 10 Hispanics polled say they've never heard of the former congressman and Cabinet member, the first Hispanic to seek the Democratic presidential nomination."

Page gives the kicker quote to San Antonio advertising super-star, and a friend of mine, Frank Guerra. Guerra says Hispanic brand loyalty -- and political loyalty -- is up for grabs. We'll see.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports today out of Orlando, Florida that "Republican presidential candidates made a major miscalculation this week by skipping the nation's largest gathering of Hispanic elected officials, local party representatives and event organizers said."

Can you say intra-party problems: "The Republican candidates have blown off Hispanics in Florida," said state Rep. Juan Zapata, a Republican who helped bring the NALEO event to the state.

More: "With many Hispanics already concerned about some of the candidates' opposition to a bill that would provide a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants which failed in the Senate Thursday and anti-Hispanic rhetoric accompanying the debate, top candidates can ill-afford to alienate those loyal to the party, especially in a swing state like Florida, they said."

Right on. Ok, sure most Hispanics never hear anything out of this conference but if you're a supporter and your candidate is doing little to stimulate interest among influentials, particularly Republican Hispanic elected officials, you're really upset they're skipping the NALEO conference.

Update: I just heard from Alex Burgos at the Romney campaign. He says the former Governor will speak at the Republican National Hispanic Assembly's National Convention in Washington, DC on the morning of Sunday, July 22,2007

Now for your added enjoyment, here are some recent articles that quote me or reference my research on Hispanic voters, Hispanic political outreach and immigration issues:

- Agence France Presse (AFP)
- The Washington Post
- The Washington Post (II)
- National Public Radio (NPR)
- U.S. News & World Report
- Christian Science Monitor

Minority Population in U.S. Passes 100 Million

The minority population in the United States continues to grow rapidly, and while the nation is still headed for an enormous demographic shift by 2050, the shifts identified by the Census Bureau this year have big implications in the very near-term.

USA Today reports: "The nation's minority population has topped 100 million for the first time and now makes up about a third of the USA, a symbolic milestone that signals more challenges for communities adapting to diversity."

Lot's of regional implications according to these reports in The Washington Post and The New York Times. Also reports by Reuters and UPI.

Is the Digital Divide Narrowing?

BusinessWeek reports on a new study from the Pew Internet and American Life Project which appears to show a shrinking digital divide that for years had left African Americans at a disadvantage. The sub-headline of the article reads: "African Americans are snapping up broadband -- and closing the digital divide"

According to the article, "Surprise. In the past two years, African Americans have been devouring broadband technology--and the digital divide has shrunk significantly, at least for this group. The share of black households with a cable modem, DSL, or satellite Internet connection climbed to 40% this year, Pew says. That's almost twice as fast as the growth of broadband penetration for the general population, which grew to 47%."

ABC News Reports on the Health Environment Action Network

ABC News science reporter Ned Potter has an outstanding report on the new "Health Environment Action Network (HEAN)" launched by the National Alliance for Hispanic Health (a client of The 2050 Group), four regional partner organizations, and environmental countdown. See the launch press release. HEAN is empowering citizen scientists who will be researching and reporting on air and water pollution in four different regions of the country.