eMarketer Report Shows Huge Growth in Hispanics Online

MediaWeek reports on a new report showing significant growth in the number of Hispanics that are online.

In 2008, eMarketer estimates there are 23 million Hispanics online, about 52% of the US Hispanic population, but widening cultural and language fragmentation makes reaching them a challenge. And as the population grows, so will the problem. By 2012, nearly 30 million US Hispanics will be online. Many of them will be native-born Hispanics rather than immigrants.

OBAMA/DNC TO INVEST $20 MILLION IN HISPANIC OUTREACH

The Washington Post's Shalaigh Murray reports today on "$20 million investment in Hispanic voter mobilization" by the DNC and Obama for America.

The DNC put out an advisory saying they will, this afternoon, "hold a conference call to discuss the historic and unprecedented announcement that the Democratic campaign will commit $20 million to mobilizing Hispanic voters."

Since when does the DNC have a massive cash-flow to invest in what essentially has become a Democratic Party base vote this cycle? Sure the Obama campaign has already invested millions in Hispanic voter outreach starting in the primaries. But this announcement makes me wonder if when they say $20 million they really mean something else. Perhaps the fact that most Democratic fundraising dollars are going to the Obama and DNC operations, instead of the shadowy 527s of yesteryear, means this is the total consolidated effort on the Democratic side. Still, it would represent well more than double any previous effort. Yes, as the advisory say, it would be "historic."

What's the McCain campaign/RNC to do now?

UPDATE: 4:10 pm

AP put out a big national story on the wire about this announcement.

The campaign said the $20 million will be spent on registering and mobilizing voters, advertisements and online organizing.

I've received calls from reporters with La Opinion and South Florida Sun-Sentinel about this effort, a little evidence of the excitement this announcement is stirring up.

UPDATE: 5:15 pm

The Obama campaign is really playing up the historic-money angle, according to the DNC press release:

The unprecedented $20 million commitment to engage and mobilize Hispanics will include voter mobilization, voter registration, online organizing, community outreach and paid advertising. Part of the effort will also include "Camp Obama" trainings around the country, which will empower Hispanics with the organizing tools and information they need to engage and turn out voters in their home neighborhoods and states. Both the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee also have Hispanic staff involved at every level of the campaign, from field organizers to senior roles.

Senator Barack Obama's campaign has already spent more on Hispanic outreach than any presidential campaign before it, and now the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee will join together in this unprecedented initiative to continue promoting engagement and mobilization among Hispanic voters and build on already overwhelming Hispanic support for the Democratic party and Senator Obama.

And this comes as no surprise, Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) members applaud the $20 million announcement.

UPDATE: 7:40 pm

Obama campaign and DNC have been citing my Hispanic Voter Project research. See this from NBC News First Read blog.

The New York Times blog "The Caucus" cites our research in a post about today's announcement:

The D.N.C. and the Obama campaign will jointly finance the effort. They noted that the $20 million sum was more than double what the Bush and Kerry campaigns spent altogether on Hispanic outreach during the 2004 election, according to a Johns Hopkins University study.

Politico: The McCain-Latino disconnect

Politico newspaper/website columnist David Paul Kuhn has a stinging piece out today about McCain's difficulty in attracting Latino voter support. He argues that a new poll, building on the evidence from other recent national polls, demonstrates McCain is in deep trouble with Hispanic voters and in particular religious Hispanic voters. Here's his basic premise:

While he earned the support of about seven in ten Hispanics in his last Arizona Senate race, a Pew Hispanic Center poll released Thursday shows that just 23 percent of Latinos intend to vote for McCain in the presidential contest, barely half of the four in ten Latino voters who exit polls showed voted for President Bush in 2004.

Kuhn quotes me in this piece, giving me the "kicker quote" as it's commonly referred to:

“You begin with the anti-immigrant legislation that came out of the House and jump started a level of activism in the Latino community that we had not seen ever,” said Adam Segal, director of the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University “and you add to that the favorable political environment for Democrats in general,” and it’s hard, he said, to see McCain’s numbers among Hispanics improving.

“This cycle is extremely favorable to Obama and the Democrats,” Segal, who then paused before emphasizing “extremely.”

Pew Hispanic Center: Hispanics Support Obama over McCain by Three-to-One

As I've predicted, Sen. Obama is dominating the early process of wooing Hispanic voters ahead of the November election. Today the Pew Hispanic Center added to a pile of data showing Obama with a commanding, early lead.

Hispanic registered voters support Democrat Barack Obama for president over Republican John McCain by 66% to 23%, according to a nationwide survey of 2,015 Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center, from June 9 through July 13, 2008.

The next point they make is a little overstated in my opinion, but you can judge for yourself:

In addition to their strong support for Obama, Latino voters have moved sharply into the Democratic camp in the past two years, reversing a pro-GOP tide that had been evident among Latinos earlier in the decade. Some 65% of Latino registered voters now say they identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with just 26% who identify with or lean toward the GOP. This 39 percentage point Democratic Party identification edge is larger than it has been at any time this decade; as recently as 2006, the partisan gap was just 21 percentage points.

CNN.com has it as top news story at the moment. They quote one of the lead authors of the Pew analysis:

"He now appears to be even more popular than Hillary Clinton among Latinos," Lopez said.

And the Associated Press has a piece out on the wire on this poll already.

Obama Spanish-language Radio Ad + McCain Hispanic Outreach

I'm in a Politics Magazine online piece today about ethnic targeting in the presidential campaign. And I'm quoted in tomorrow's Washington Times article that reports on a new Spanish-language radio ad put out today by the Obama campaign. MSNBC distributed the transcript of the Obama ad around noon today. And click here for the audio from the Obama campaign's Latino section from its web page.

In related news, today in DC I bumped into Juan Hernandez the well-publicized volunteer Hispanic outreach coordinator for the McCain campaign today. I joked with him that Newsweek should have its reporters walk around with me to save them trouble of trying to reach him by phone. Click the link. It'll make more sense.

And in other news, Texas Governor Rick Perry has appointed a friend and colleague of mine Hope Andrade to be Secretary of State for the State of Texas. Congratulations Hope! This is a towering accomplishment. She has become the first Latina to hold this important position. Hope will be the State's chief elections officer, among many other important duties.

Philadelphia Inquirer Story on Immigration Issue in '08 Campaign

I'm quoted in today's Philadelphia Inquirer story on immigration and the 2008 presidential campaign.

Excerpt:

Obama was leading McCain among Hispanic voters nationwide 59 percent to 29 percent, according to a July 2 Gallup poll. The margin was larger in a more recent New York Times/CBS News poll.

"The political environment in the country is advantageous to Democrats right now, and Hispanic voters reflect that - they're very concerned about the economy and the war in Iraq," said Adam J. Segal, a marketing consultant who is director of the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University. Immigration is a "complicating factor for Republicans," Segal said.

As a group, Hispanics have been trending Democratic in modern elections, though Bush was able to cut into the party's usual margin in his 2000 and 2004 victories. Hispanic support for Democrats solidified in the 2006 congressional elections, when many GOP candidates took a hard-line stance against illegal immigration.

NPR: Campaign Ads Look to Reach Hispanic Voters

NPR continues its extensive coverage of the Hispanic vote with this somewhat old-news story that ran on Weekend Edition today. What I liked most about this piece was the excerpts from interviews with some non-talking heads, you know the real voter types. I also liked the fact that it dispels some lingering myths about Hispanic community uniformity. Listen here.

Can Groups Register Two Million New Latino Voters For the Election?

A coalition of Latino groups says they're going to aim to register 2 million new Hispanic voters in time for the November election. I really hope this can become a reality, but given all the promises in past cycles, and the huge goal set this time, I am not yet convinced it will. One of the biggest obstacles is mobilizing people to spend months walking the streets to register new voters. It's a massive undertaking that political organizations and unions are effective at but Hispanic groups have not yet mastered.

Reuters reports:

U.S. Hispanic activists laid out plans on Friday to register 2 million new Latino voters to boost the clout of the United States' fastest-growing voter bloc in the November presidential election. Organizers representing more than 100 grass-roots Hispanic organizations from a dozen states met in Los Angeles to fine-tune a drive to get Latinos to sign up and vote in the November 4 election.

Adding to the story, the Ventura County Star reports:

An alliance of groups at Latino Congreso, led by the Southwest Voter Registration & Education Project, is using the event to launch a voter registration drive. It wants to register 1 million to 2 million new Latino voters by the November election, to bring the nationwide total to 12 million registered voters.

Antonio Gonzalez, president of the project, said the group will register voters in about 20 states and is prepared to spend $5 million. The effort will focus on swing states and areas with competitive congressional races.

According to the Latino Congreso site:

The National Latino Congreso is convened by the Hispanic Federation (HF), the Labor Council for Latin American Advancement (LCLAA), League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund (MALDEF), the National Alliance of Latin American and Caribbean Communities (NALACC), the National Day Labor Organizing Network (NDLON), the National Hispanic Environmental Council (NHEC), Southwest Voter Registration Education Project (SVREP), and the William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI).

Visit www.latinocongreso.org

Obama Campaign Pledges to Smash All Hispanic TV & Radio Spending Records!

According to The New York Times article on Obama, McCain and the Hispanic vote: “We’re going to spend more money on Latino TV and radio than has ever been spent on a presidential campaign, and by a lot,” Cuahtemoc Figueroa, the director of Mr. Obama’s Latino vote effort, told members of La Raza on Sunday.

Wow. This is significant. Not only did the Obama and Clinton campaigns combine to smash primary records, this is a firm commitment to spend more and do more on Hispanic voter outreach. If this doesn't put enormous pressure on the McCain to step up and spend more, I don't know what will.

Obama is going to win the Hispanic vote this cycle, no doubt. The question is whether he can increase Democratic support to historic levels? They're clearly aiming to achieve that.

Visit the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University website to put this in context.

Excerpt from McCain Speech to National Council of La Raza

Senator John McCain strongly defended his record on immigration before the national conference of NCLR (Sen. Obama spoke yesterday). Said Obama's criticisms in speeches to Hispanic groups were wrong. Strong statement in this excerpt provided by the Associated Press.



McCain supports the DREAM ACT.



McCain then took questions five from the audience. Smart. And he strongly defended NAFTA.

Enrique Morones got the mic and asked a pointed question on immigration of Sen. McCain.

Newsweek.com reports McCain kept answering questions from the audience even when NCLR staff took mics away from audience members. Good for him.

"But it was what happened after the speech that was the most notable moment of the day. McCain, who continues to talk up his idea of joint town halls with Obama, decided to take questions from the audience after his remarks. After fielding several questions, many not so friendly, McCain was about to take another when he was interrupted by one of the organizers, who announced over the PA system they were out of time. As he often does when his own staff tries to wrap up an event, McCain shook off the intrusion like a pitcher defying his catcher and took the next question. But NCLR reps, trying to keep the event on time, just wouldn’t be stopped. While McCain was answering the question, one of the organizers took away the microphone audience members had been using to talk to McCain. When the senator finished his answer and saw the microphone was gone, a look of annoyance flashed on his face. And then, McCain simply threw his own microphone into the audience, calling for one last question. It’s a move that’s patent McCain. In the run up to Super Tuesday, McCain often rebelled against his staff, who packed his schedule with quick airport rallies rather than his preferred town halls."

CBS Early Show Reports on Obama, McCain Speeches to NCLR

Excerpt: Obama Speaks at NCLR in San Diego

Obama and McCain in S.D. for Latino Conference

The two presumptive major party presidential candidates continue their pursuit of the Hispanic vote with speeches in a major conference in California. Senator Barack Obama speaks to the National Council of La Raza conference today in San Diego. Senator John McCain speaks tomorrow.

The Los Angeles Times reports on a speech yesterday by L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to NCLR, an Obama supporter.

McCain's Speech Makes Big News; Commitment to Pass Comprehensive Immigration Reforms

Last night I posted my thoughts about the Obama and McCain speeches to LULAC. Here's how two reporters who were actually there in the room saw it!

First, The New York Times found McCain's comments about immigration reform to be quite newsworthy. Giving it a feel-good headline: McCain tells Hispanic group of his commitment to immigration reform

Second, Dana Milbank of The Washington Post had a funny review of the Obama and McCain LULAC speeches, summing it up by calling both big panderers. Parity of pandering. He had at least one McCain quote that made McCain's speech seem quite personal (somewhat in contrast to my perception that Obama had a more personal speech).

Milbank also posted an awesome, humorous video from the LULAC event to the WPost site that mirrors the column in the paper today. Check it out here!

Obama's Powerful, Personal Speech to LULAC

I don't care what you thought was going to happen with Obama and the Hispanic vote during the Democratic primaries (many of you thought the strong Clinton support meant Obama couldn't earn Hispanic support in the general election). Polls have proven skeptics of Obama's support in the Hispanic community wrong quite rapidly.

Today he took another step forward in taking up the title of the candidate for the Hispanic community. He gave a powerful, personal speech. He demonstrated he knows Hispanic community organization issues, knows LULAC (a pillar organization in the community for decades) and that he's ready to lead the nation with the Hispanic community in mind each day. That's powerful not only for a Democratic politician, but also for an African American politician.

Check out his speech from today and the audience's response. Powerful. Personal. Real.



I've carefully examined the speeches of both candidates today. And I shared some of my thoughts briefly in a big interivew on XM Satellite Radio's POTUS '08 this afternoon.

McCain's speech was much less personal, and really a recitation of policy proposals and priorities he has put out the last few weeks and months. He had some personal thoughts in the closing paragraphs, but the difference was stark.

The Hill posted excerpts from McCain's speech. They sound good, but gosh I don't see the personal passion and excitement. Maybe I just don't know McCain well enough. Check it out here and judge for yourself:



I'd love to help McCain develop a more powerful, personal message to the Hispanic community-based organizations and the community more generally. He deserves to be able to communicate better with this community, one he cares about.

Sure the Hispanic community cares about the same issues as the general electorate, but they also want to know how candidates connect to Latinos as a community and personally. And the way Obama speaks about immigration seems much more natural, less parsed. McCain has got to do better when he speaks to NCLR (La Raza) in San Diego about a week from now.

I'd love to expand upon these quick thoughts, and I hope to in the near future.

NPR: Through Ads, Candidates Vie For Hispanic Voters

I made the cut and landed in this NPR radio "Weekend Edition Sunday" and web story "Through Ads, Candidates Vie For Hispanic Voters." Jed Alpert, CEO of NYC-based Mobile Commons, made the cut as well. The piece is reported by NPR veteran journalist Martin Kaste. Text available now, audio probably becomes available after it airs on Sunday. Good stuff.

Related to this story, see Barack Obama's Spanish-language TV ad from the Puerto Rico primary. Obama speaks in Spanish to the camera. Powerful.

Obama will win Hispanic vote in November

I've been saying for a while that Obama's support among Hispanic voters is quite natural and have predicted (quite safely of course) he'll win the Hispanic vote. Since 2006 it's been pretty safe to talk about the Hispanic vote as a base-vote constituency of the Democratic Party. Sure the GOP is going to fight like heck for support in the Hispanic community. But let's not fool ourselves, at least at the presidential level, Dems start with a giant advantage.

With that said, there's a lot of evidence from past election cycles that essentially shows that when Dems win 70 % of the Hispanic vote they win the White House and when the GOP scores 40 % they win. The ground in the middle is where this all gets fun. And that's the segment, beyond the Hispanic conservatives, that McCain is going to go after.

Baltimore Sun's Katie Fretland reports on Gallup poll showing Obama with a massive 30-point advantage over McCain among Hispanics. 

Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones reports that McCain faces a struggle to attract the support of the Hispanic community given the "consistent and solid support" for Obama recently.

"Some political experts assumed Obama's struggle to attract widespread Hispanic support in the primaries would carry over into the general-election campaign against the Republican candidate." Jones reports. "But Hispanics have become a reliable Democratic voting bloc, and have so far shown little difficulty in transferring their loyalties from Clinton to Obama... Hispanic voters could be crucial in key swing states such as New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida."