Polling experts say Obama leading McCain Thanks to Hispanic Voters

Mark Feierstein and Ana Iparraquirre from polling shop Greenberg Quinlan Rosner had a post on Huffington Post Saturday afternoon about Obama's strong support among Hispanic voters. It's a topic I have blogged about here and helped media to understand in recent weeks. It's good to know more public opinion pros feel the same way:

In fact, Obama is running well ahead of John McCain among Hispanics, and significantly better than John Kerry did against George Bush in 2004. Obama's leads in national polls are due to his strong advantage (about 35 points) among Latinos. Take out Hispanics, and the race is effectively tied.

And they argue McCain doesn't have much of a shot at winning the Hispanic vote:

The gains that Republicans made among Latino voters in 2000 and 2004 were erased in 2006, and there are few signs that McCain is in a position to win them back. The Republican brand name has been so severely damaged that it would be difficult for any Republican to retain much support among Hispanics this year.

And this:

But Obama has an attractive profile for Hispanic voters. They are particularly impressed with his background as an urban community organizer and early opposition to the Iraq war.

Candidate Address NALEO, McCain Tells Hispanics: "You Can Trust Me"

Senators and presumptive presidential party nominees John McCain and Barack Obama both spoke to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials today in Washington, DC. I would have been there had it not been the Sabbath. But I hear that it was quite an eventful day with a throng of media and party loyalists - though mostly Democrats - in the audience.

Here's a wrap-up of some of the coverage:

The New York Times Caucus blog reports McCain tells the group "You can trust me" and pledges to solve the full immigration problem (not just borders). McCain was heckled by anti-war group. McCain said: "I’ll be your partner when I’m in the White House." And Obama said: "We are all Americans. Todos somos Americanos" and "I will be your partner in the White House and I will be your champion in the White House."

From USA Today's OnPolitics blog:

"At least 9.2 million Latino voters will cast ballots in November," the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund predicts in a report it released today (which can be downloaded here -- fair warning, it's a large pdf).

Obama's campaign posted his speech to NALEO to YouTube:



AP posted part of McCain's speech to YouTube:



The NALEO conference gave media an extra reason to focus on the Hispanic vote including this piece from Cox News. Here's an excerpt:

Nationwide, the number of Hispanics eligible to vote increased from about 14 million in 2000 to 17 million in 2006, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan research group in Washington. However, registration among Latinos has traditionally been low. In 2004, about 16 million Latinos were eligible to vote, but only 7.6 million cast ballots. The NALEO projection of 9.2 million Latino voters is similar to other estimates. A higher estimate came this month from NDN, a liberal public interest group in Washington. It predicted that a record 11.9 million Hispanics will vote in this year’s presidential contest, 59 percent more than in 2004.

Hispanic Voter Registration

Miriam Jordan of the Wall Street Journal reports on State Farm Insurance's sponsorship of a major national Hispanic voter registration drive. Here's a little hype about the program from Jordan's article:

State Farm, one of the country's top home and auto insurers, will inject $1 million into the "Ya Es Hora" (It's About Time) campaign. The drive -- backed by the largest Spanish-language broadcast and print media in the U.S., and spearheaded by a nonpartisan outreach group, the National Association of Latino Elected Officials Educational Fund -- could influence the agenda and outcome of the 2008 election.

Hispanics and Mobile Marketing Campaigns

VentureBeat and CNET writer Jake Swearingen quotes me in a news story about the growth of mobile use and marketing strategies in the Hispanic consumer market. The story appeared, among other places, on The Industry Standard website.

Swearingen reports: 

For companies looking to make a move into mobile advertising, it might be good to a get a few bilingual Spanish speakers on staff. While money has already been following Hispanics online for a while, with Hispanic consumer spending expected to top $1 trillion by 2010, and use of mobile phones exploding within the Hispanic market, expect more and more mobile marketing targeted at Hispanics in the coming months. A March 2008 Pew/Internet study found Hispanics leading in nearly every single category of mobile phone usage, in some cases by double digits.

And later quotes me:

Hispanic mobile use has given advertisers a way to engage with an audience that has at times been hard to reach. Adam J. Segal, president of Washington, DC-based multicultural PR firm The 2050 Group, notes, “Until the recent explosion in mobile, Hispanic consumers were difficult to reach in massive numbers if Univision radio and television didn’t match marketing priorities. Hispanics are highly connected, receptive to mobile marketing efforts, and way over-index in many of the key categories that jive well with mobile.“ To that end, two companies, HipCricket and ImpreMedia, have both inked deals this week to engage Hispanic users over cell phones.

I connected the reporter with Jed Alpert the CEO of dynamic tech shop Mobile Commons which is leading cutting-edge mobile communications campaigns for a very long list of serious clients, primarily in the non-profit and political sector.

John McCain and Closed-Door Meeting with Hispanics

ABCNews.com and The Washington Post today report on Rep. Tom Tancredo's criticism of Sen. John McCain, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, for meeting with Hispanic leaders behind closed doors and apparently leaving some indication that he's still committed to comprehensive immigration reform. 

I really only have one question. Did Tancredo really ever believe that John McCain had turned his back on the immigrants who have made our country more prosperous? Probably not, so this is most likely a publicity stunt to get the immigration issue back into the political spotlight, and it's working.

Sure politics shifts the focus and tone and impact of legislative proposals, but as far as I know McCain never said he'd abandon his support for broader immigration reforms beyond border security efforts. With that said, it's possible his thinking on "path to citizen" has evolved, but it's not entirely clear what his proposal would look like.

Watch his Memorial Day ad which replays a powerful clip from the New Hampshire primary.

I think McCain met privately with Hispanic leaders because he wanted to have an honest, open dialogue on issues that are important to the community. 

Let's look at his campaign website, review the videos and transcripts from the primaries, and I think we'll see a candidate who maintains a commitment to finding solutions for the workers that are already in this country. No doubt this is a difficult issue to resolve, but McCain is committed to resolving it nonetheless.

"He's one John McCain in front of white Republicans. And he's a different John McCain in front of Hispanics"

Associated Press reports on a private meeting Senator John McCain, the Republican presumptive nominee, held with Hispanic community leaders and Hispanic Republicans in Chicago. Question: why did the McCain camp invite a member of the Minuteman Project to participate in a Hispanic community meeting, even if the person was Hispanic?

"He's one John McCain in front of white Republicans. And he's a different John McCain in front of Hispanics," complained Rosanna Pulido, a Hispanic and conservative Republican who attended the meeting.

Pulido, who heads the Illinois Minuteman Project, which advocates for restrictive immigration laws, said she thought McCain was "pandering to the crowd" by emphasizing immigration reform in his 15-minute speech.

The Power of BET

AdAge magazine (reporting under the Madison+Vine section) has an intriguing report on the influence and money-making abilities of the BET Awards as well as the shrinking media landscape for reaching African American consumers, as one industry player puts it. Viacom has been emphasizing BET's strong future prospects.

AdAge's Andrew Hampp reports today (June 19):

The BET Awards, airing June 24 on BET, have emerged as the de facto Super Bowl for the African-American audience. With integrated sponsors such as Procter & Gamble, Target, Dodge and Verizon banking more of their TV and digital dollars than ever on BET's weeklong coverage of the event, it's a testament to the network's growth as a destination for young black audiences as well as to just how depleted the rest of the TV universe's diversity resources have gotten in recent years.

In other news, Fmr. Rep. JC Watts is leading a team to create the Black Television News Channel.

RiseUp Magazine

A husband-wife team is launching RiseUp, a magazine devoted to diversity and racial dialogue in America. According to Newsweek's coverage: "RiseUp, a new weekly magazine that will be inserted in Sunday newspapers beginning June 22. Printed in Kansas City, the magazine is expected to initially reach 4.5 million readers."

I find this very exciting. I hope this magazine helps report on and contribute to the amazing national discussion on race, ethnicity and American diversity at this important time.

According to the magazine's website:

RiseUp is a weekly newspaper magazine insert, which will address race relation issues, and be distributed through major metropolitan daily and weekly newspapers in the top 15-25 metropolitan areas. The primary goal of RiseUp is to provide an ongoing forum with information and tools to improve race relations. The magazine will address important issues affecting the nation and its racially diverse and ethnic communities. RiseUp will cover, in-depth, timely topics in the areas of health, education, politics, business and cultural uniqueness.

Kos Conventional Wisdom on Hispanic Vote Was Wrong

Kos blogs today that the conventional wisdom (CW) that Obama will have trouble with Hispanic voters is wrong. He cites data, new and old, suggesting "Obama [is] poised to absolutely crush McCain."

Blacks Around the World Find Hope, Joy in Obama Candidacy

Obama is apparently inspiring people of color all around the world. See today's New York Times article about the phenomenon in France. This is a theme the Times has been carrying in a lot of its coverage, including this June 5 piece on the Black community in the U.S. But is Obama in step with African views on social issues. I found this interesting column in the International Herald Tribune.

Google and Yahoo! Propose 10-Year Deal for Advertising

The Associated Press and other news organizations reported today on the huge announcement that Yahoo! will rely on Google advertising on its sites to boost its own profits. This is a gigantic announcement even though the various search engine companies have at times relied upon or partnered with each other. 

According to the AP: 

Yahoo Inc.'s efforts to revive takeover talks with Microsoft Corp. have reached a dead end, prompting the Internet pioneer to hire online search leader Google Inc. to handle some of its advertising sales.

It's still unclear to me whether this means Google keyword ads and other ads will come to dominate all of Yahoo! sites. If so, it kind of makes sense because the Google advertising system milks more profit out of every advertising dollar spent, at least that's my impression.

I have always found Google to be the better advertising system with the greatest return.

Here's the Google press release. This is as if the Los Angeles Lakers were now authorized to use all of the resources of the Boston Celtics. Two top competitors now working together, profiting more from the relationship. It's a win-win for these guys. But you have to wonder what's next? Perhaps a Google takeover of Yahoo!

And here's excellent analysis from BusinessWeek.

Obama Launches fightthesmears.com

TIME.com reports that Sen. Barack Obama's campaign has launched an online anti-rumor war-room, "a Web-based rumor clearinghouse, located at fightthesmears.com, in which it hopes all the shady stories about Obama's faith, his family and his rumored connections with controversial figures can go to die."

The rules of Internet campaigns are being re-written again in 2008. Obama saw the enormous success of online fundraising and voter mobilization and now wants to see this technology and community put to use to stamp out lies in the blogs, emails and even in traditional/mainstream media.

Supporters may find this unified effort empowering.

NBC/WSJ Poll Shows Obama With Huge Lead Among Hispanics

Even as some Hispanic Democrats are putting pressure on Sen. Barack Obama today and as Sen. John McCain grabs attention for some Spanish-language ads, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released in the paper this AM shows Sen. Obama with a commanding lead over Sen. McCain among Hispanic voters (62-28%). McCain faces a significant uphill climb among Hispanic voters in this political environment. The survey finds Obama with an 6-point national advantage among all voters (47-41%).

WSJ reporter Jackie Calmes reports:

Some good news for the likely Democratic nominee: Despite suggestions during the nomination contest that many Hispanics and Hillary Clinton supporters wouldn't support him, the poll shows both groups overwhelmingly do.

More Calmes:

To Sen. Obama's advantage, the Journal/NBC poll results seem to debunk two widely held conclusions from the Democrats' nomination contest. Exit polls of Democratic voters suggested many of Sen. Clinton's supporters wouldn't vote for Sen. Obama in November if he is the Democratic nominee. In particular, pro-Clinton Hispanics were generally thought to be cold to Sen. Obama.

In the poll, however, voters who chose Sen. Clinton in the primaries said by a 3-to-1 ratio, 61% to 19%, that they plan to vote for Sen. Obama over Sen. McCain in November. "Hillary's embrace of Obama really made a difference," Mr. Newhouse says.

By 62% to 28%, Hispanic voters support Sen. Obama. "That does not bode well for Republicans" in the Southwest, the Republican pollster added, in swing states such as Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, where Hispanic voters are numerous enough to tip the result. Sen. McCain, who comes from a state with a large Hispanic population and has favored liberalizing policies toward illegal immigrants, has hopes of matching Mr. Bush's record of winning more than 40% of Hispanic voters.

Gebe Martinez Column Cites Hispanic Voter Project

Veteran Capitol Hill Writer/Reporter Gebe Martinez has full-page column on Spanish-language media and the 2008 presidential campaigns' outreach to Hispanic voters in today's Politico.

It's a very nice piece and it cites my latest research for the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University including the fact that a record of more than $4 million was invested in Spanish-language TV advertising beyond the first half of the presidential primary season.

If I had to provide one critique it would be that the article is so long it's a shock Gebe didn't get around to quoting anyone from Barack Obama's campaign or strategists close to his efforts at the campaign or within the Democratic Party.

Image linked from the article at Politico.com.

McCain/GOP Launch Huge YouTube Advertising Push for User-Generated Video

McCain manager Rick Davis issues a call for user-generated videos for GOP convention:



and here's the first submission, the most exciting 18 Hispanic Republican in America (ok, kidding):

Three Hundred Thousand and Counting, Pro-Obama and Anti-War Video on YouTube

I can't get over the power of these pro-Obama videos that are pulling in hundreds of thousands of views. Here's Andres Useche's "Si Se Puede Cambiar."

I gave an interview to Hispanic Business Magazine today about the Latino vote in 2008 and mentioned this type of messaging.



I'm really trying to understand who's going to jump on YouTube and other sites with pro-McCain videos that has this kind of artistic, mass appeal. Is it possible nobody will?

The McCain campaign is posting supportive testimonials like these, but they help to further underscore the challenge the campaign faces in the age of YouTube and an excited electorate with more young people than in recent presidential campaign cycles:

Podemos con Obama

"Podemos con Obama" is a must-see. Seriously, it's stuff like this that leads me to believe that technology and young people are going to help Obama dominate the Hispanic vote in the general election. A quarter-million people have already seen this video in the week since it was posted.

The pro-Obama music video features Paulina Rubio, one of the leading Spanish pop-artists (her music is great and she performed at a major event I produced in 2004 at the Democratic Convention in Boston, so I thought it was great she was included)



Thanks to NDN for posting on this video.

Obama Has Wide Lead Over McCain Among Hispanic Voters

A new poll shows presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama with an enormous lead over John McCain among Hispanic voters. Before accepting it as gospel, it's worth asking how accurate and representative this Gallup poll is.

Regardless, I have no doubt Obama is going to win the Hispanic vote in 2008, the real question is by how much.

Here's Peter Wallsten's article in the Los Angeles Times today about the new poll.

Karl Rove had a column in the Wall Street Journal aimed at exposing weaknesses of the two leading candidates. One section suggests Obama is in trouble with Latinos. But given the new Gallup poll, the following excerpt from Rove's column may not be relevant: 

"Mr. Obama's support among Latino voters was a tepid 34% in the 13 primary contests with an appreciable number of Hispanics. He carried a majority of the Hispanic vote in only one state – his home state of Illinois, which he won by the slim margin of 50%-49%."

McCain's New Radio Spot Aimed at Hispanics in Nevada and New Mexico

I received a bunch of calls today from reporters asking about McCain's outreach to Hispanic voters. The calls were spurred by the McCain campaign's release of a new :60 Spanish-language radio. It's always smart politics to release these things early in the primary season because it gives political writers something to focus on early and then re-report on throughout the season.

The spot's ok, not amazing. But it does get out a centrist message and takes on the Democrats on some of the issues they debated in the primary season. Nevada and New Mexico were chosen for obvious reasons; they'll be important for McCain to win in November if he's going to win the White House.

Telemundo Yanks Cada Dia

I always felt great about placing a client on Telemundo's morning program "Cada Dia." But it never felt nearly as good as placing a client on Univision's AM show "Despierta America."

The biggest reason should be obvious, Despierta's viewership was larger (perhaps as much as 8 to 10 times) on most days. And Despierta inspired far more phone calls to client organization hotlines than Cada Dia.

Yet I was really saddened to hear the Cada Dia bubble has been burst. Cada Dia was lively and a hybrid of sorts bringing the fun and culture of Spanish-language TV along with the news and celebrity of NBC's Today Show format.

But money drives almost everything in television and Cada Dia was not bringing in the big advertising bucks.

The Los Angeles Times had a fairly thorough report on the matter, recently:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fi-telemundo31-2008may31,0,2707858.story

Marketing y Medios reports on a complete realignment in news that goes far beyond just that one major program:
http://www.marketingymedios.com/marketingymedios/noticias/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003810307

Layoffs:
http://www.laobserved.com/archive/2008/06/adios_cada_dia.php

Obama and the Hispanic Vote

Sen. Barack Obama is going to run hard for the Hispanic vote and this is going to be a very exciting general election. I told Bloomberg news that I think Obama will win the Hispanic vote in this era of solid Hispanic support for the Democrats.

But John McCain is going to work just as hard and is probably the Republican best positioned to peel away Hispanic votes from the Democrats.

But tonight's speech by Obama and the massive crowd are reminders that something unique is happening in the political arena and this momentum may very well bring along many people in the Hispanic community who previously supported Senator Clinton.

Here's Sen. Obama's final Spanish-language TV spot of the primary season: