Obama and McCain to be Profiled on Univision's Sabado Gigante

Presidential candidates and Senators Obama and McCain will be profiled and will appear, in pre-taped interviews, on Univision's Sabado Gigante this Saturday, November 1st. Further evidence of increasingly aggressive Hispanic outreach efforts in the closing days of the campaign. Here's the announcement in Spanish.

Obama Leading 69-25 Among Hispanics

CNN's John King says Obama leads among Hispanic voters 69-25 and that they have pushed Nevada in solid Democrat column.

Hispanic Democrats Outnumber Hispanic Republicans in Florida for First Time

The just found it's way into my in-box:

The Pew Hispanic Center today released a fact sheet about Hispanic registered voters in Florida. Final 2008 general election voter registration figures from Florida, along with recent data from the U.S. Census, show significant changes in both the political leanings and the demographics of Latinos in the electoral-rich Sunshine State. This year more Hispanics in Florida are registered as Democrats (513,252) than as Republicans (445,526). As recently as 2006, the reverse was true: among Latino registered voters in Florida, more were Republican (414,185) than Democratic (369,906).

Do we need any more evidence that Hispanic political demographics have undergone enormous shifts?

Miami Herald Reports on Obama's Spanish-language TV Strategy, Quotes Adam J. Segal

I'm quoted in a Miami Herald article by reporter Casey Woods about Obama's Spanish-language TV strategy reaching out to Hispanic voters. A similar version of the piece offered up to McClatchy newspapers cites my research with the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University.

Not sure how I missed this. Obama's half hour commercial is also going to run on BET and TV One, two cable channels that reach critical supporters in the African American communities nationwide.

Obama Leading McCain 61 to 29 Among Hispanic Voters

According to the Gallup Poll, Obama leads McCain among Hispanic voters 61% to 29%.

I think this is actually a slightly conservative estimate. But we'll know more in just one more week. Though I caution, the national exit polls don't always reflect Hispanic vote share correctly and may be upgraded or downgraded within hours, days or weeks as occurred in 2004 when NBC News downgraded Bush's share of the Latino vote from 44% reported on Election Day to 40% after further analysis.

Here's another new Obama ad, "Rising Above," running on Spanish-language television:

Astonishing: Univision Poised to Nearly Double Political Ad Spending Receipts

Wow. Given the shocking amounts of money (record-breaking) poured in political TV advertising this is not without context. But I find this prediction, that Univision will have nearly doubled political ad spending receipts.

"Univision Communications, the media giant with two broadcast networks, a Web portal and multiple radio stations, expects to sell as much as $20 million in political ads during the second half of 2008 and around $37 million for the entire year, Chief Financial Officer Andrew Hobson told investors in a second-quarter conference call. During the previous presidential election cycle, Univision garnered $16.2 million worth of political ads."

According to USA Today, the AFL-CIO has Spanish-language radio ads on the air.

National Journal reported on a Spanish-language radio ad the Obama campaign has been running.

New Obama Ad, Plan for 30 Minute Ad on Univision Network

Obama ad released today - candidate speaks in Spanish during the entire 30 second spot, wow

Also today... the Obama campaign announced half-hour network ad on Univision. Here's the Washington Post's Ed O'Keefe: The "Barack Obama campaign will air a Spanish-language version of its 30-minute infomercial on Wednesday night on Univision, the highest-rated Spanish language television network."



Did he really? Obama says McCain's attacks are "loco."

Maybe a reference to McCain attacks in Spanish brochure for "serious Christians."

Recent Spanish-Language TV Ads from the Presidential Candidates

Recent positive Obama ad "Opportunidad" and get out the vote (GOTV) video aimed at Latino voters in Nevada





McCain's latest Spanish-language TV attack/negative ads "Riesgo" (Risk) and below that is "Fraudulent"





And a negative "documentary" web video asking Latinos of Chicago "Where is Obama?"



And previously, Obama's negative/attack ads "Dos Caras" (a repost on this blog) and "No Hay Mayor Obligacion" which ran in Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado

OBAMA HITS BACK AT MCCAIN ON IMMIGRATION, IN SPANISH

The Washington Post has an extensive report on this new spot and the context.

McCain's Latest Spanish-Language TV/Web Spot Slams Obama on Immigration

The Washington Post reports on the McCain immigration ad here.

Wow. The New York Times Editorial Board asks: What’s Spanish for “Lies”?. The Times says the McCain spot is "fraudulent."

Meanwhile, I'm quoted in recent stories about Hispanic outreach by the presidential campaigns including today's edition of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and the Las Vegas Sun from Sunday.

Minority Media and Convention Coverage

The New York Times has a lengthy piece on how minority media organizations and foreign media have been covering the presidential conventions.

Adam Segal Featured on JHU's Great Ideas Podcast

I had the honor of serving as the guest scholar on the latest edition of the monthly Johns Hopkins University Great Ideas Podcast. It's a huge honor to be asked to participate in this podcast.

August 2008: Adam Segal, who teaches in the Master of Arts in Communication program in the Krieger School of Arts and Sciences Advanced Academic Programs, is watching two key developments in this year's presidential campaign: outreach to Hispanic voters and increased use of interactive technology to market candidates.

In related news, I finished grading the massive stack of final papers for the students in my Internet Strategies course at JHU in Washington, DC this summer!

"TV One-Dimensional" Politically

Michael E. Ross has a really interesting column today on TheRoot.com about cable TV network TV-One's decision to only cover the Democratic convention, where the Party will nominate its first African American presidential nominee, and the criticism it has received.

On a recent broadcast of "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno," the host launched into his opening monologue with customary snark. But instead of riffing on a celebrity, he detoured and took on Johnathan Rodgers, the CEO and president of the black cable network TV One. Rodgers had recently announced that his channel planned to cover only the Democratic National Convention, which begins in Denver on Monday, and not the Republican convention, in Minneapolis-St. Paul in September.

Hispanic Athletes Are 4% of Olympians

Associated Press reports "Hispanic growth not reflected on US Olympic squad"

an Associated Press review found only about two-dozen Hispanic athletes on the nearly 600-member U.S. team - roughly 4 percent. By contrast, African-Americans, who make up 13.5 percent of the population, hold more than 120 spots on the team. More than half the 126 U.S. track-and-field athletes are black; only two - distance runners Leonel Manzano and Jorge Torres - are Hispanic.

Meanwhile, Telemundo is raking in millions of viewers during the Olympics, reports MediaWeek:

NBC-owned Hispanic broadcast network Telemundo, over the first 10 days of Summer Olympics coverage from Beijing, has drawn a total of 12 million unique persons, already surpassing the audience for the entire run of coverage for the 2004 Summer Olympic games on Telemundo, by 12 percent.

AOL has a Spanish-language blog, Fanáticos, devoted to the Olympics with coverage of the Hispanic American athletes.

Jacoby: The myth of the white minority

This is an interesting one...

Jeff Jacoby's column in the Boston Globe: "The myth of the white minority"

Here's an excerpt:

But there was another problem with all this coverage of how white America is becoming a minority: The Census Bureau never said it.

You can see the numbers for yourself on the Census Bureau website. In a spreadsheet titled "Projections of the Population by Race and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2008 to 2050," the bureau forecasts a rise in the number of whites from about 243 million today to 325 million at midcentury - an increase of 82 million. A related spreadsheet gives the percentages: Whites today account for nearly 80 percent of the US population. In 2050, they'll constitute 74 percent - still a very hefty majority.

So what explains the persistent drumbeat about the impending white minority? A statistical distortion: the exclusion of Hispanic whites. If only non-Hispanic whites are counted, the white population today amounts to 66 percent of the total, and will hit around 46 percent by 2050.

Let me know what you think about his view.

RISE UP MAGAZINE REACHES MILESTONE: 7 SUCCESSFUL ISSUES

If you have not yet had the chance the check out Rise Up Magazine, you must.

I found the cover story two weeks ago on "Melting Pot Metros and the Ever-Evolving American Dream" to be quite interesting and was amazed how timely it was given today's news from the U.S. Census Bureau showing the accelerated demographic shifts that are occurring in the U.S.

Strangely, the website for Rise Up lists The Washington Post as a participating paper but I've yet to see it inserted in the paper. Here's the full list of papers Rise Up says it places its magazine in:

- Atlanta Sunday Paper
- Chicago Sun-Times
- Chicago Tribune
- Cincinnati Enquirer
- Kansas City Star
- Los Angeles News
- Louisville Courier
- McComb Enterprise
- New York Daily News
- Philadelphia Media News
- St. Louis Post-Dispatch
- Washington Post

U.S. BECOMES MAJORITY MINORITY BY 2042

Newsday has apparently broken a strict embargo from the U.S. Census Bureau (a top national news organization was holding for 12:01 am but may now release). This is very news worthy info - though no shock to many of us.

The most important point is the rapid Hispanic population growth and the fact that the projections move the date of this dramatic demographic shift a full EIGHT YEARS SOONER than the last estimates.

Looks like I may need to change the name of my PR and multicultural marketing agency from The 2050 Group to The 2042 Group or maybe something safer like... well you get the point.

These demographic changes, in the coming decades, will mean enormous changes in minority political and economic/consumer strength not to mention that they could result in significant social/cultural changes. How corporations and the government reach minority communities will obviously become more important aspects of their work.

Excerpts from the Newsday report:

In a new report out Thursday, the U.S. Census Bureau projects the nation will become much more diverse by midcentury, with minorities forecast to become the majority population by 2042, experts said.

and another excerpt from the report on Newsday.com:

The Census Bureau projects that minorities, now roughly one-third of the nation's population, will become the majority by 2042, and grow to 54 percent by 2050. Hispanics are projected to nearly triple their numbers -- rising from an estimated 46.7 million today to just under 133 million by 2050, out of a projected total U.S. population of 439 million.

The black population is expected to rise from 41.1 million, or 14 percent of the nation's population today, to 65.7 million, or 15 percent by 2050. The Asian population is projected to rise from 15.5 million people now, or 5.1 percent of the U.S. population, to 40.6 million, or 9.2 percent, by 2050.

UPDATE: Drudgereport is now linking to the Newsday article as its top story.

UPDATE2: I shortened the excerpt. Anyone who reads this should go to the Newsday site to read the complete article. Perhaps others will have posted by the time you read this.

UPDATE3: Presumably four hours early, Associated Press has posted its story. Perhaps a longer version will post soon. In the meantime, here's the headlines from The Washington Post page with the AP story: "White Americans no longer a majority by 2042."

UPDATE4: CNN.com has a lengthy story on this new report and deals with the role immigration and birth rates play in the estimates.

UPDATE5: The New York Times and other national news organizations are reporting on these data this morning. I found this comment on the rapid demographic changes in the Times piece to be interesting:

“No other country has experienced such rapid racial and ethnic change,” said Mark Mather, a demographer with the Population Reference Bureau, a research organization in Washington.

UPDATE6: And this USA Today story quotes a Pew spokesperson on the impact immigration has had on these new numbers:

Jeffrey Passel, senior demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center, says the earlier projections were low because they underestimated immigration. "We've measured a much higher immigration in the '90s," he says. "In this decade, those high levels continued."

Award-Winning Film "Trouble the Water" to Open in Washington, DC Next Month

The 2050 Group has been hired to promote the DC opening of the film "Trouble the Water," the Sundance 2008 Grand Jury Prize Winner for Documentary. This is a good summary of the film:

The film tells the story of an aspiring rap artist and her streetwise husband, trapped in New Orleans by deadly floodwaters, who survive the storm and then seize a chance for a new beginning. It’s a redemptive tale of self-described street hustlers who become heroes that takes you inside Hurricane Katrina in a way never before seen on screen.

Check out the trailer:



And join the "Trouble the Water" group on Facebook.

eMarketer Report Shows Huge Growth in Hispanics Online

MediaWeek reports on a new report showing significant growth in the number of Hispanics that are online.

In 2008, eMarketer estimates there are 23 million Hispanics online, about 52% of the US Hispanic population, but widening cultural and language fragmentation makes reaching them a challenge. And as the population grows, so will the problem. By 2012, nearly 30 million US Hispanics will be online. Many of them will be native-born Hispanics rather than immigrants.

OBAMA/DNC TO INVEST $20 MILLION IN HISPANIC OUTREACH

The Washington Post's Shalaigh Murray reports today on "$20 million investment in Hispanic voter mobilization" by the DNC and Obama for America.

The DNC put out an advisory saying they will, this afternoon, "hold a conference call to discuss the historic and unprecedented announcement that the Democratic campaign will commit $20 million to mobilizing Hispanic voters."

Since when does the DNC have a massive cash-flow to invest in what essentially has become a Democratic Party base vote this cycle? Sure the Obama campaign has already invested millions in Hispanic voter outreach starting in the primaries. But this announcement makes me wonder if when they say $20 million they really mean something else. Perhaps the fact that most Democratic fundraising dollars are going to the Obama and DNC operations, instead of the shadowy 527s of yesteryear, means this is the total consolidated effort on the Democratic side. Still, it would represent well more than double any previous effort. Yes, as the advisory say, it would be "historic."

What's the McCain campaign/RNC to do now?

UPDATE: 4:10 pm

AP put out a big national story on the wire about this announcement.

The campaign said the $20 million will be spent on registering and mobilizing voters, advertisements and online organizing.

I've received calls from reporters with La Opinion and South Florida Sun-Sentinel about this effort, a little evidence of the excitement this announcement is stirring up.

UPDATE: 5:15 pm

The Obama campaign is really playing up the historic-money angle, according to the DNC press release:

The unprecedented $20 million commitment to engage and mobilize Hispanics will include voter mobilization, voter registration, online organizing, community outreach and paid advertising. Part of the effort will also include "Camp Obama" trainings around the country, which will empower Hispanics with the organizing tools and information they need to engage and turn out voters in their home neighborhoods and states. Both the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee also have Hispanic staff involved at every level of the campaign, from field organizers to senior roles.

Senator Barack Obama's campaign has already spent more on Hispanic outreach than any presidential campaign before it, and now the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee will join together in this unprecedented initiative to continue promoting engagement and mobilization among Hispanic voters and build on already overwhelming Hispanic support for the Democratic party and Senator Obama.

And this comes as no surprise, Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) members applaud the $20 million announcement.

UPDATE: 7:40 pm

Obama campaign and DNC have been citing my Hispanic Voter Project research. See this from NBC News First Read blog.

The New York Times blog "The Caucus" cites our research in a post about today's announcement:

The D.N.C. and the Obama campaign will jointly finance the effort. They noted that the $20 million sum was more than double what the Bush and Kerry campaigns spent altogether on Hispanic outreach during the 2004 election, according to a Johns Hopkins University study.