WILL DEMS HIT THE HISPANIC VOTE JACKPOT?

It looks more and more likely that the next Democratic presidential candidate, no matter who they are, will be able to count on the Hispanic vote jackpot. Two new stories out today are really in line with this thinking.

First, skilled political writer Susan Page at USA Today reported from San Antonio for a cover story on "Hispanics turning back to Democrats for 2008." The headline itself is somewhat misldeading -- My sense is that Democrats have historically enjoyed 56% or more of the Hispanic vote (if you think the exit polls are usually wrong you start at 60% or more). But the premise of the piece is absolutely accurate: Democrats are poised to receive the largest share of the Hispanic vote in years if all goes in their favor in the walk-up to the 2008 presidential election. And with the immigration bill blocked in Congress -- by the GOP is you ask Democratic Party leadership in Congress -- it'll be a very big up hill climb.

Page reports on a new USA Today poll which finds: "A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll indicates that Hispanics, by nearly 3 to 1, say they're Democrats or lean that way. Of those, 59% support the New York senator [Sen. Hillary Clinton] over her presidential rivals — her strongest showing among any major demographic group and a huge potential asset for early contests in Nevada, Florida, California and other states with large Hispanic populations."

Page writes that Hispanic New Mexico Governor Bill "Richardson still has to introduce himself. Six in 10 Hispanics polled say they've never heard of the former congressman and Cabinet member, the first Hispanic to seek the Democratic presidential nomination."

Page gives the kicker quote to San Antonio advertising super-star, and a friend of mine, Frank Guerra. Guerra says Hispanic brand loyalty -- and political loyalty -- is up for grabs. We'll see.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports today out of Orlando, Florida that "Republican presidential candidates made a major miscalculation this week by skipping the nation's largest gathering of Hispanic elected officials, local party representatives and event organizers said."

Can you say intra-party problems: "The Republican candidates have blown off Hispanics in Florida," said state Rep. Juan Zapata, a Republican who helped bring the NALEO event to the state.

More: "With many Hispanics already concerned about some of the candidates' opposition to a bill that would provide a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants which failed in the Senate Thursday and anti-Hispanic rhetoric accompanying the debate, top candidates can ill-afford to alienate those loyal to the party, especially in a swing state like Florida, they said."

Right on. Ok, sure most Hispanics never hear anything out of this conference but if you're a supporter and your candidate is doing little to stimulate interest among influentials, particularly Republican Hispanic elected officials, you're really upset they're skipping the NALEO conference.

Update: I just heard from Alex Burgos at the Romney campaign. He says the former Governor will speak at the Republican National Hispanic Assembly's National Convention in Washington, DC on the morning of Sunday, July 22,2007

Now for your added enjoyment, here are some recent articles that quote me or reference my research on Hispanic voters, Hispanic political outreach and immigration issues:

- Agence France Presse (AFP)
- The Washington Post
- The Washington Post (II)
- National Public Radio (NPR)
- U.S. News & World Report
- Christian Science Monitor