Thursday, October 30, 2008

Obama and McCain to be Profiled on Univision's Sabado Gigante

Presidential candidates and Senators Obama and McCain will be profiled and will appear, in pre-taped interviews, on Univision's Sabado Gigante this Saturday, November 1st. Further evidence of increasingly aggressive Hispanic outreach efforts in the closing days of the campaign. Here's the announcement in Spanish.

Obama Leading 69-25 Among Hispanics

CNN's John King says Obama leads among Hispanic voters 69-25 and that they have pushed Nevada in solid Democrat column.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Hispanic Democrats Outnumber Hispanic Republicans in Florida for First Time

The just found it's way into my in-box:

The Pew Hispanic Center today released a fact sheet about Hispanic registered voters in Florida. Final 2008 general election voter registration figures from Florida, along with recent data from the U.S. Census, show significant changes in both the political leanings and the demographics of Latinos in the electoral-rich Sunshine State. This year more Hispanics in Florida are registered as Democrats (513,252) than as Republicans (445,526). As recently as 2006, the reverse was true: among Latino registered voters in Florida, more were Republican (414,185) than Democratic (369,906).


Do we need any more evidence that Hispanic political demographics have undergone enormous shifts?

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Miami Herald Reports on Obama's Spanish-language TV Strategy, Quotes Adam J. Segal

I'm quoted in a Miami Herald article by reporter Casey Woods about Obama's Spanish-language TV strategy reaching out to Hispanic voters. A similar version of the piece offered up to McClatchy newspapers cites my research with the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University.

Not sure how I missed this. Obama's half hour commercial is also going to run on BET and TV One, two cable channels that reach critical supporters in the African American communities nationwide.

Obama Leading McCain 61 to 29 Among Hispanic Voters

According to the Gallup Poll, Obama leads McCain among Hispanic voters 61% to 29%.

I think this is actually a slightly conservative estimate. But we'll know more in just one more week. Though I caution, the national exit polls don't always reflect Hispanic vote share correctly and may be upgraded or downgraded within hours, days or weeks as occurred in 2004 when NBC News downgraded Bush's share of the Latino vote from 44% reported on Election Day to 40% after further analysis.

Here's another new Obama ad, "Rising Above," running on Spanish-language television:

Monday, October 27, 2008

Astonishing: Univision Poised to Nearly Double Political Ad Spending Receipts

Wow. Given the shocking amounts of money (record-breaking) poured in political TV advertising this is not without context. But I find this prediction, that Univision will have nearly doubled political ad spending receipts.

"Univision Communications, the media giant with two broadcast networks, a Web portal and multiple radio stations, expects to sell as much as $20 million in political ads during the second half of 2008 and around $37 million for the entire year, Chief Financial Officer Andrew Hobson told investors in a second-quarter conference call. During the previous presidential election cycle, Univision garnered $16.2 million worth of political ads."

According to USA Today, the AFL-CIO has Spanish-language radio ads on the air.

National Journal reported on a Spanish-language radio ad the Obama campaign has been running.

New Obama Ad, Plan for 30 Minute Ad on Univision Network

Obama ad released today - candidate speaks in Spanish during the entire 30 second spot, wow

Also today... the Obama campaign announced half-hour network ad on Univision. Here's the Washington Post's Ed O'Keefe: The "Barack Obama campaign will air a Spanish-language version of its 30-minute infomercial on Wednesday night on Univision, the highest-rated Spanish language television network."



Did he really? Obama says McCain's attacks are "loco."

Maybe a reference to McCain attacks in Spanish brochure for "serious Christians."

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Recent Spanish-Language TV Ads from the Presidential Candidates

Recent positive Obama ad "Opportunidad" and get out the vote (GOTV) video aimed at Latino voters in Nevada





McCain's latest Spanish-language TV attack/negative ads "Riesgo" (Risk) and below that is "Fraudulent"





And a negative "documentary" web video asking Latinos of Chicago "Where is Obama?"



And previously, Obama's negative/attack ads "Dos Caras" (a repost on this blog) and "No Hay Mayor Obligacion" which ran in Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado